Rodri out for ‘a long, long time’

Alex Keble assesses how important Rodri has been to the Premier League champions and how his absence may affect their hopes of an unprecedented fifth title in a row. 

There was naturally concern among the Manchester City squad, staff, and supporters when Rodri limped out of Sunday’s match against Arsenal with a knee injury – and Pep Guardiola has now confirmed the Spaniard faces a lengthy lay-off.

“When the team doesn’t play with the best midfielder in the world, for a long, long time, it is a big blow,” said Guardiola.

“Rodri is irreplaceable. But in football it happens and my duty is to find a solution to be competitive and continue to be a problem for our opponents. I will find a solution. We will do it.”

Few are as capable as Guardiola of delivering on that promise but nonetheless, just like that, the Premier League title race has swung in Arsenal’s favour. 

What is City’s record without Rodri?

Man City lost three Premier League games last season and Rodri, who is still on a personal unbeaten run spanning 52 fixtures, was suspended for each one. City were 1-0 up and cruising before he hobbled off in Sunday’s 2-2 draw. 

Has there ever been a player more important to their team than Rodri is to Man City? Well, we are about to find out. 

Guardiola has never before had to adapt without the Spanish midfielder for anywhere near the amount of time that this injury could rule him out for. It is the ultimate test of the tactical clarity of this late-stage Guardiola team; of just how much Rodri’s genius was covering for midfield gaps gradually appearing over the last couple of seasons.  

Losing him would be a brand new problem for Man City. 

Rodri started 50 matches and played 4,325 minutes last season, both more than any of his team-mates, and since his arrival in 2019/20, he has missed only 21 of Man City’s 195 Premier League matches, equating to just 10.8 per cent. 

City’s next five PL fixtures

When they have missed him, things have often gone wrong – as we saw as recently as Sunday, when Arsenal equalised 43 seconds after Rodri was withdrawn.

Man City have lost seven of the 21 Premier League games, or 33 per cent, in which he did not feature, a record that is getting worse over time. They lost three of the four he missed last season, falling to Wolverhampton Wanderers, Arsenal and Aston Villa, but beating Luton Town in a game for which Rodri was rested. 

The deeper stats make for grim reading, too. 

Man City have won 74.1 per cent of their Premier League games with Rodri in the side and 61.9 per cent without him, translating to 2.37 points per game with the Spaniard and 1.90 per game without.

Man City with/without Rodri in PL

The points-per-game difference is particularly significant. 

Should City continue their current rate of 1.90 points per Rodri-less game, they would end this Premier League season on 76 points if the midfielder isn’t able to feature over the remainder of the campaign.

That’s 15 points fewer than last season and only enough to have finished fourth. Indeed, only once in Premier League history has 76 points been enough to win the title, back in 1996/97. 

Clearly, Man City have to adapt better to life without Rodri – and somehow change the story of the last five years. 

Why is Rodri so important to Man City? 

The data is there for all to see, but not enough analysis highlights precisely why Rodri is so badly missed and why nobody else in the City squad has previously been able to step into the role. 

First, some more numbers.  

Since he joined the club in 2019/20, Rodri has won possession 1,348 times in the Premier League. Only Declan Rice, with 1,356 times, has done so more often. Incredibly, in the same time frame, Rodri has made nearly 2,000 more passes than any other player. 

Isolating just last season, Rodri ranked second for possessions won, with 235, just two short of Bruno Guimaraes on 237, and topped the Premier League charts for touches (3,988), carries (2,513), passes into the final third (378) and progressive passes (376).

How Rodri ranked in 2023/24

This neatly captures the two sides of his game: world-class ball recovery and world-class attacking distribution. 

Rodri differs from most midfield anchors in that he anticipates opposition movements to sweep up possession without needing to tackle or intercept very often, meaning he regains the ball for Man City.  

That allows City to retain control, momentum and possession, pinning opponents back in that Guardiola style.

It is arguably the sole reason why, in 2023/24, Man City topped the charts for possession, with 65.2 per cent, despite pressing so little, ranking just ninth for their average of 12.0 passes per defensive action (PPDA), which measures the success of their pressing.

He also easily led the Premier League rankings for open-play sequence involvements per 90, with 8.4, as the graphic below from Opta Analyst demonstrates.

City don’t need to hustle all over the pitch for the ball because they have a magician in midfield doing the work of two players.

On the ball, Rodri is unique in his capacity to play proactively from deep. He pulls all the strings, often evading the opposition press with intelligent one-touch passes around the corner, although more eye-catching are his pinpoint passes into the forward line. 

What happens when Rodri isn’t playing? 

Looking at the Premier League games Rodri has missed since the start of 2023/24, it’s obvious nobody else at Man City can pass like he can or defend so elegantly. 

Aston Villa completely outplayed Man City in a 1-0 win at Villa Park last December, swarming the visitors in midfield and restricting them to just two shots. Similarly , Guardiola’s side hunkered down and struggled in a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal.

On both occasions, City were a shadow of themselves without Rodri’s distribution cutting open the opponent and without his defensive work keeping them in control. 

In their 2-1 defeat to Wolves, they were more dominant in possession, with 68 per cent, but twice conceded counter-attacking goals of the sort Rodri usually halts. Teams like Newcastle United, whom City play this weekend, will be looking closely at the Wolves loss in particular. 

This season, Guardiola’s side have not felt Rodri’s absence quite so much – but there have been hints of problems to come. 

The 3-1 victory over West Ham United and 4-1 win against Ipswich Town were simple enough, with Erling Haaland’s form easily carrying City past inferior opponents.

However, Brentford could and should have been 3-0 up at the Etihad Stadium earlier this month prior to the hosts’ comeback. City came under immense early pressure and simply could not get a foothold.  

Future opponents will take note: if you are bold, press high and treat the champions like equals, then without Rodri’s defensive screening and press-resistant passing, they can be beaten back. 

Who could replace Rodri in midfield?

For a more optimistic outlook, take the 2-0 victory over Chelsea on the opening weekend. 

Mateo Kovacic controlled the game in the Rodri role, taking more touches, with 64, and making more tackles (six) than anyone else on the pitch, as well as scoring the crucial second goal.  

But there’s an important caveat here. Chelsea looked confused and disorganised in an awkward 4-4-2 that repeatedly left them light on midfield numbers and left huge gaps between the lines, including ahead of Kovacic’s goal.

Nevertheless, Kovacic is the most likely replacement. He is a sharp passer when under pressure and capable of wriggling away from danger. He ought to do a decent impression of the on-the-ball stuff. 

Then again, his numbers do not compare favourably to Rodri’s, and Kovacic lacks the positional awareness to prevent counter-attacks – as we saw so distinctly when Brentford tore through the middle in the opening 30 minutes. 

In summary, there really hasn’t been any convincing evidence since 2023/24 that City can play at their usual level without Rodri. 

That surely means Guardiola will rethink his tactical set-up.

Double pivot?

Perhaps he will deploy Rico Lewis more consistently as an inverted full-back to add an extra body in central midfield. This could create a more solid base of Kovacic and Lewis across the middle while City are in possession, screening against counter-attacks but also ensuring the centre-backs have multiple passing options into midfield. 

Possible XI (3-2-2-3): Ederson; Stones, Dias, Gvardiol; Lewis, Kovacic; Gundogan, De Bruyne; Savinho, Haaland, Foden. 

Move Gundogan deeper?

Another option is to move Ilkay Gundogan into a deeper role alongside Kovacic, using a standard double-pivot with traditional full-backs to essentially replace Rodri with two players. 

Possible XI (4-2-3-1): Ederson; Walker, Dias, Stones, Gvardiol; Gundogan, Kovacic; Savinho, De Bruyne, Foden; Haaland. 

Stones to step up?

The third way is for John Stones to step into midfield from centre-back. Stones did this many times in 2023/24, often breaking up the play in Rodri-like fashion. He recovered possession seven times from midfield in a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, and six times in the 3-1 win at home to Manchester United. 

Possible XI (3-2-2-3): Ederson; Walker, Dias, Gvardiol; Stones, Kovacic; Gundogan, De Bruyne; Savinho, Haaland, Foden. 

Those are the three main options. None of them are entirely convincing, because frankly nobody can really fill the Rodri hole.  

Arsenal and Liverpool have a massive chance

And that is why Arsenal fans devastated by the late equaliser on Sunday may now feel differently this week.  

All of a sudden they hold an advantage in the title race, although Liverpool supporters will also rightly feel a first title in five years is on the cards. 

Mikel Arteta’s men have shown they can get to 89 points, a number that history suggests City cannot reach without Rodri, while Arne Slot should feel confident of getting into the 80s – and therefore at least being in the conversation. 

In other words, we now look all-but guaranteed another dramatic three-horse title race in the spring. 

Rodri’s injury really is that big, because one way or another – either causing the end of City’s four-year title-winning streak or triggering an extraordinary stat-busting recalibration from Guardiola – it could define the 2024/25 Premier League season.

Man City’s remaining 2024 fixtures (PL unless stated)

28 Sep Newcastle (A)
1 Oct Slovan Bratislava (A) – UCL
5 Oct Fulham (H)
20 Oct Wolves (A)
23 Oct Sparta Prague (H) – UCL
26 Oct Southampton (H)
2 Nov Bournemouth (A)
5 Nov Sporting (A) – UCL
9 Nov Brighton (A)
23 Nov Spurs (H)
26 Nov Feyenoord (H) – UCL
1 Dec Liverpool (A) 
4 Dec N Forest (H) 
7 Dec Crystal Palace (A) 
11 Dec Juventus (A) – UCL
14 Dec Man Utd (H) 
21 Dec Aston Villa (A) 
26 Dec Everton (H) 
29 Dec Leicester (A) 

PL dates from 6 Dec subject to change.